Last time I heard of a Flash Killer, it was for Silverlight, a technology with a penetration rate that still remains below 60% several years after its release… Forget Silverlight then…. Forget…Html5. With a penetration rate below 20%, it might take years before it becomes equivalent to Flash’s, which is near 100% (Mobiles apart). Let’s also keep in mind that the future release of IE9 supporting Html5 (correct support?) will not be available for users running Windows XP. Disappointing.
Picture Html5 full support in a few years. Let’s now picture Flash Player X, implemented with Adobe’s innovations, video, sound, 3D, performance, and anything that you can’t possibly imagine. Here you have the basic advantage of a plugin, a technology not depending on browsers and their updates, not depending on the current web actors’ inertia.
The non-support of Flash by Apple is a blow, but keep in mind that iPhone’s market share is declining. IPad is a great device, but unlike the iPhone (which has long walked solo on the market), it will soon face a fierce competition from manufacturers (HP Slate, Toshiba, Dell…) developing tablets offering full-flash support.
More & more mobile devices will come with Android built on, and Google supports Adobe. The Open Screen Project should allow Flash to be available on other OS.
It’s true that Flash is still not fully supported on Mobiles, but as things stand today, mobile web is not THE Web.
So I would appreciate people keeping in mind the reality of Web Development with real clients/users. Html5 will be a great evolution of html, but it’s still in development and far to be ready.
Fyi, I’m a Flash Developer and I’m booked up for months.